Taking a long look at the Sooners
There's hope, but it's still very hard to see Oklahoma getting where it needs to be
Six days from season’s start and if I try really hard I can come up with a scenario in which Oklahoma reaches nine or 10 wins.
But there’s a problem.
I don’t buy it.
Though the 10-year-old Sooner fan I’ve never entirely extinguished still lives somewhere deep inside of me, I still can’t see it.
Though I love the Ben Arbuckle and John Mateer gets, I still can’t believe it.
I still can’t believe it, mostly, because Brent Venables has yet to make a believer out of me (and just about anybody else, I’m pretty sure).
I still can’t believe it because the way the program’s been run since his arrival gives me little confidence that, this time, four seasons in, he’ll pull the right situational strings.
I still can’t believe it because the chances this team runs like a well-oiled machine appear even less than previous campaigns given Venables’ choice to run his own defense, because his weakness since the beginning has been an inability to oversee the entire squad, particularly on Saturdays, and how on earth does that get better when he’s putting so much upon himself in just one part of it?
Great head coaching is about being the secret sauce in every facet, thus managing a roster greater than the sum of its parts, and though Venables burying himself in the defense, as though that’s not been the case for three seasons already, may put a higher floor and ceiling under the unit, it simultaneously brings down the ceiling of the whole shebang.
Yes, head coaches run their own offense all the time, but that’s because the price of nabbing a guru is just that, making him head coach, and though it may raise a team’s fortunes, it’s still not optimal
Come to think of it, who’s the last head coach/offensive coordinator to win it all?
Steve Spurrier, near as I can tell, at Florida, in ’96, when a guy named Bob Stoops ran the Gator defense.
A long time ago.
The offense
I love Mateer and love that he’s quarterbacking for the same offensive coordinator, Arbuckle, for a third straight season and still the best team he faced all of last season was Boise State, a 45-24 Washington State loss in which the Cougars trailed 45-17 until a late score with 19 seconds remaining.
Among the receivers, I love Deion Burks but the rest is untested talent, two, three or four of whom, beyond Burks, must make a difference.
Can they?
Great question.
I appreciate OU having a large running backs room, Jaydn Ott among them, the No. 1 running back in the portal, but can he do what he did in the old Pac-12 in the SEC?
No clue.
If he can, and running backs coach DeMarco Murray adequately ranks his own room — because it’s been a problem in the past — and Mateer can run the ball in Norman has he did in Pullman, OU might be onto something, but can Ott really be that guy?
Is he in the class of Kennedy Brooks or Rhamondre Stevenson, because it’s backs like that OU’s been missing the length of Venables’ tenure.
But sure, what the heck, pretend it all works. Pretend Mateer, Burks and Ott have what it takes to be first-team all-conference selections, in the Sooners’ old conference at least.
They’ll still be nowhere without an offensive line that may not have to dominate but must still be good in the context of its conference.
Can it?
Strain, and perhaps you can see it.
Jacob Sexton, who started eight games before injury last season, may be settled in at left tackle; Logan Howland, who played in all 13 games last season, starting the last five at left tackle, is a likely starter at right tackle; Troy Everett should return to center after starting the last seven games at the same position last season; Febechi Nwiawu started every game at right guard a year ago and may again should he stay healthy; Heath Ozaeta played in 12 of 13 games last season, starting the last seven at left guard and should return t the spot this season.
But is there reliable depth?
Will those mentioned take a big developmental step, forging enough chemistry to stand up to Michigan in week two?
Can they remain healthy?
If it’s yes, yes and yes, you can see the narrative:
They took their lumps, they came back healthy and hungry and better, transforming an entire offense along the way.
That’s a lot of ifs falling the right way.
Defense
Everybody says it will be great but here are some pesky facts:
Let’s say OU does exactly what it did defensively last season this season.
Good, right?
It would mean OU putting the 19th best total defense (318.2 ypg allowed) and 29th best scoring defense (21.54 peg allowed) on the field.
But would you believe those same numbers, in its own conference, had OU trailing Texas (No. 2; 254 ypg), Tennessee (No. 6; 293.2 ypg), Ole Miss (No. 14; 311.2 ypg), South Carolina (No. 16; 316.6 ypg) and Missouri (No.. 17; 317.9 ypg) in total defense last season and Ole Miss (No. 2; 14.38 ppg), Texas (No. 3; 15.31 ppg) Tennessee (No. 7; 16.08 ppg); Alabama (No. 10; 17.38 ppg), South Carolina (No. 12; 18.08 ppg). Missouri (No. 20; 20.38 ppg), Georgia (No. 23; 20.57 ppg) and Auburn (No. 28; 21.33 ppg) in scoring defense last season.
The numbers may be skewed because the Sooner offense did the Sooner defense no favors, and still how much better can the defense expect to be?
Breakdown
OU’s going to need serious breakout seasons from Mateer, two or three receivers and more than one running back with a line that doesn’t buckle, a defense that one, doesn’t back up and, two, forces turnovers the offense doesn’t give back, while somehow prevailing in every game that could go either way.
I don’t see it.
Even should OU manage to beat Michigan and exit the Cotton Bowl 5-1 after losing to Texas, where do the wins come after?
• at South Carolina
• Ole Miss
• at Tennessee
• at Alabama
• Missouri
• LSU
Knock off Ole Miss, Missouri and Tennessee and you’ve still only reached eight.
Only an utterly transformed team that plays well, doesn’t do stupid things, on the field or the sideline, that maxes out week after week, can hope to reach double-digit wins. And a team that falls short of those measures may win only five, six or seven.
I’ll go with seven.
Seven is not enough.