WORLD SERIES PREVIEW: Sooners seeking fourth straight crown; the schedule; and a report on every team
Duke's for real, don't count out the Cowgirls, Stanford's got the best pitcher by far and still Oklahoma and Texas look like the class of the field (yet Florida's close)
The Skinny
I write “it’s interesting” a lot.
Probably because every moment is different, every point in a season comes with its own context, every decision that might have made sense a week ago may not make sense now and the way to look at a team, digest a team, judge a team changes over time as well.
So here we are and it’s again World Series time and it’s interesting.
Most of the time, all the regular season long and the first two weekends of NCAA play, too, especially for a program like Oklahoma, the name of the game is extrapolation.
Here’s what’s happening now, after what happened last week, the week before and the week before that, and here’s what it tells us, what it means or what it could mean going forward.
Now, that’s over.
Now, you win, you’re good.
No need to apologize.
No need to belabor the point.
Sure, if Kelly Maxwell allows five runs yet the Sooners still prevail, you can wonder why and fret about her next start. But there’s nothing to be done about it. All you can do is hope she’s better the next time Patty Gasso rolls her out.
Yes, you can worry about Tiare Jennings should she go 0 for 4 with three strikeouts, because OU would be better if she didn’t. But she’ll be back tomorrow or the next day, batting second, third or fourth in the lineup, tasked with the same job of hitting the ball hard and producing runs.
The Sooners enter the World Series having run their win streak to nine games and their postseason win streak to eight, claiming the Big 12 tournament, the Norman Regional and the Norman Super Regional along the way.
Most recently, they won one of those games Sooner fans might hope for every day, run-ruling Oregon last Thursday night, and one of those games requiring them to gut it out, a low-scoring two-run decision notable for, among other things, Kierston Deal, Karlie Keeney and Nicole May holding the Ducks down well enough from the circle despite not striking out a single batter.
Crazy.
The Sooners also appear to have, by far, the easiest draw.
The next highest national seed in their half of the bracket is No. 6 UCLA and, statistically, the Bruins appear to be overrated still. Joining them are No. 10 seed Duke and No. 14 seed Alabama, having landed “upsets” of No. 7 Missouri and No. 3 Tennessee.
No. 1 Texas, No. 4 Florida, No. 5 Oklahoma State and No. 8 Stanford occupy the other half.
About that, the Crimson’s Tide’s taking down of the Vols was indeed an upset. Duke, however, a 3-0 loser to OU on the season’s first day, did not have to upset anybody to get here and, if you ask me, are no worse than the fourth best team in the draw behind Texas, OU and Florida and I’m not sure the Blue Devils don’t belong in front of the Gators.
More about that below.
If the Sooners fail to claim their fourth straight national championship and their eighth in program history, it will be unfortunate, even disappointing, but not constitute any type of lost season.
Making it to Oklahoma City also means never having to say you’re sorry. This time of year, all getting eliminated means is you got beat and every year it happens to all but one team.
OU is really, really good.
The Sooners carry the biggest bats in the field, a fraction better than Texas’. The Longhorns are right there with them and feature a big running game, too, something OU can’t claim. Sooner pitching is excellent, but not the field’s best. That claim belongs to Duke, unless it’s Stanford, but only if the amazing NiJaree Canady can walk out there and throw every Cardinal game.
Anything can happen.
Enjoy.
The Schedule
Women’s College World Series
USA Softball Hall of Fame Complex
OGE Energy Field
Oklahoma City
Double Elimination
Thursday, May 30
Game 1: UCLA (42-10) vs. Alabama (38-18), 11 a.m.
Game 2: Oklahoma (54-6) vs. Duke (52-7), 1:30 p.m.
Game 3: Texas (52-8) vs. Stanford (48-15), 7 p.m.
Game 4: Florida (51-13) vs. Oklahoma St. (49-10), 9:30 p.m.
Friday, May 31
Game 5: Game 1 loser vs. Game 2 loser, 6 p.m.
Game 6: Game 3 loser vs. Game 4 loser, 8:30 p.m.
Saturday, June 1
Game 7: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 2 p.m.
Game 8: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 6 p.m.
Sunday, June 2
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 8 loser, 2 p.m.
Game 10: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 loser, 6 p.m.
Monday, June 3
Game 11: Game 7 winner vs. Game 9 winner, 11 a.m.
Game 12: Game 7 winner vs. Game 9 winner, 1:30 p.m., if necessary
Game 13: Game 8 winner vs. Game 10 winner, 6 p.m.
Game 14: Game 8 winner vs. Game 10 winner, 8:30 p.m., if necessary
Championship Series
(Best-of-3)
Game 1: Wednesday, June 5, TBA
Game 2: Thursday, June 6, TBA
Game 3: Friday, June 7, TBA, if necessary
OU Numbers
Entering last week
Games: 58
Batting average: .365
On-base percentage: .471
Slugging percentage: .651
Earned run average: 1.82
Strikeouts/walks/innings pitched: 347/109/358
Opponent batting average: .187
Fielding percentage: .980
Errors: 29
Unearned runs allowed: 9
Entering this week
Games: 60
Batting average: .366
On-base percentage: .473
Slugging percentage: .653
Home runs: 110
Doubles: 98
Triples: 8
Runs: 483
Stolen bases/attempts: 64/78
Earned run average: 1.85
Strikeouts/walks/innings pitched: 350/116/370
Hit batters: 35
Opponent batting average: .188
Fielding percentage: .980
Errors: 30
Unearned runs allowed: 9
Leaders
Batting average: Ella Parker .419 (Rylie Boone .415)
On-base percentage: Jayda Coleman .532 (Ella Parker .526)
Slugging percentage: Alyssa Brito .834 (Tiare Jennings .817)
Runs batted in: Tiare Jennings 63 (Alyssa Brito 59)
Home runs: Tiare Jennings 22 (Alyssa Brito 18)
Triples: Alyssa Brito 4 (Rylie Boone 1, Kasidi Pickering 1, Avery Hodge 1, Jayda Coleman 1)
Doubles: Ella Parker 14, Tiare Jennings 14 (Alyssa Brito 13)
Hits: Alyssa Brito 71 (Tiare Jennings 67)
Runs scored: Jayda Coleman 68 (Alyssa Brito 61)
Stolen bases: Ella Parker 17 (Maya Bland 8)
Earned run average: S.J. Guerin 0.70; 10 IP (Paytn Monticelli 1.11; 19 IP)
Wins: Kelly Maxwell 20-2 (Nicole May 14-2)
Innings pitched: Kelly Maxwell 128 1/3 (Nicole May 82 2/3)
Strikeouts: Kelly Maxwell 132 (Nicole May 90)
Last week for OU
NCAA Norman Super Regional
— def. Florida State 11-3
— def. Florida State 4-2
Record: 54-6
Conference record: 22-5
Conference tournament record: 3-0
NCAA postseason record: 5-0
Streak: Won 9
The Field
Texas
National seed: 1
Record: 52-8 (23-4 Big 12)
Offense: 379/.458/.628, 89 HR, 95 2B, 18 3B, 485 R, 86/100 SB
Pitching: 1.95 ERA, 380 IP, 272 SO, 99 BB, 31 HB, .200 OBA
Defense: .965 FLD%, 59 errors, 31 unearned runs
Notable: Only Texas can match both power numbers and pitching numbers with the Sooners, yet its defense is an Achilles’ heel, having allowed opponents to turn 59 errors into 31 unearned runs. By contrast, OU has committed 30 errors, costing only nine unearned runs, by far the least in the field. Nobody in the field — Florida excepted — steals bases like the Longhorns. Indeed, the way Texas runs puts an absolute premium on opponents playing spotless defense. The Longhorns also claim a slugger nobody can match, OU included. Reese Atwood is slashing .435/.505/.904 with 23 home runs and 90 RBIs. And Texas pitching is very good, with a team earned run average under 2.00.
Florida
National seed: 4
Record: 51-13 (17-7 SEC)
Offense: .337/.448/.594, 91 HR, 111 2B, 19 3B, 499 R, 107/116 SB
Pitching: 2.78 ERA, 398 IP, 273 SO, 150 BB, 37 HB, .220 OBA
Defense: .976 FLD%, 39 errors, 29 unearned runs
Notable: Give the Gators a chance in this thing. Their power numbers don’t stack up with OU and Texas, but they’re still very good despite playing in the nation’s best conference, while running with even more abandon than Texas, stealing 107 bases in 116 attempts — outrageous — and have hit a World Series field high 19 triples. OU’s hit only eight. Then there’s pitcher Keagan Rothrock, whose 2.43 earned run average is good but not great, while her 233 2/3 innings pitched is otherworldly. Believe it or not, that used to be common for a staff ace. Yet, in Oklahoma City, she’ll be one of only two pitchers to have already thrown at least 200 innings.
Oklahoma State
National seed: 5
Record: 49-10 (21-6 Big 12)
Offense: .312/.393/.566, 92 HR, 84 2B, 11 3B, 363 R, 45/56 SB
Pitching: 1.99 ERA, 380 2/3 IP, 306 SO, 114 BB, 19 HB, .209 OBA
Defense: .976 FLD%, 40 errors, 29 unearned runs
Notable: The Cowgirls hit well enough and pitch well enough, they’re just not quite in the same league as Texas and Oklahoma. What they have done, however, is take two of three games from both the Sooners and Longhorns during the regular season. So, if they can manage not to get beat by anybody else, based upon confidence alone, you have to like their chances as a sleeper pick to win the whole thing. They also have Lexi Kilfoyl and her 1.06 earned run average over 171 innings and five different hitters to have slugged double digit home runs, led by Caroline Wang’s 17. OSU’s not quite a machine, but very dangerous.
UCLA
National seed: 6
Record: 42-10 (17-4 Pac-12)
Offense: .323/.409/.525, 63 HR, 61 2B, 9 3B, 321 R, 30/37 SB
Pitching: 3.54 ERA, 336 IP, 330 SO, 114 BB, 23 HB, .246 OBA
Defense: .974 FLD%, 35 errors, 29 unearned runs
Notable: Being appointed the No. 6 national seed, the Bruins must have received extra credit for dropping only four games in the historically softball rich Pac-12, because their numbers do not scream “dangerous.” They hit well, but not with great power, they carry only two pitchers with an ERA under 10 and no pitchers with an ERA below 2.50. Their most dangerous facets are two very dangerous bats belonging to Maya Brady (.431/515/.844, 17 HR, 13 2B, 68 RBI) and Sharlize Palacios (.387/.488/.876, 20 HR, 57 RBI).
Stanford
National seed: 8
Record: 48-15 (17-7 Pac 12)
Offense: .278/.369/.447, 54 HR, 80 2B, 18 3B, 298 R, 46/51 SB
Pitching: 1.91 ERA, 425 IP, 463 K, 110 BB, 53 HB, .216 OBA
Defense: .969 FLD%, 52 errors, 30 unearned runs
Notable: Just like their Pac-12 counterpart Bruins, the Cardinal’s national seed feels a little high. Plain and simple, they’re not a good hitting team, with slash numbers no team in the field would want. Exactly one player appears to make them dangerous and that’s NiJaree Canady, who’s got to be the nation’s best pitcher, not only carrying the nation’s tiniest earned run average — 0.65 — but carrying it over 204 2/3 innings pitched, second most in the World Series field and 14th most in the nation. Her stuff’s electric, too, leading to an amazing 310 strikeouts and an even more amazing walk total of a mere 37. Can one player win it all? We’ll see.
Duke
National seed: 10
Record: 52-7 (20-4 ACC)
Offense: .326/.405/.517, 65 HR, 76 2B, 16 3B, 396 R, 58/73 SB
Pitching: 1.53 ERA, 401 1/3 IP, 427 SO, 111 BB, 17 HB, .184 OBA
Defense: .975 FLD%, 41 errors, 20 unearned runs
Notable: The NCAA powers that be flat missed on Duke, which finished the regular season ranked No. 7 in the ESPN.com/USA Softball poll, No. 4 in the USAToday/NFCA coaches poll and even No. 3 in the actual NCAA RPI list. Nonetheless, the Blue Devils got the 10-seed and here they are in Oklahoma City. Duke doesn’t bring the same power as OU, Texas and Florida, but are terrific at the plate otherwise along with a World Series best 1.53 earned run average from a staff led by two not overtaxed arms belonging to Jaia Wright (1.28 ERA, 153 1/3 IP, 187 SO, 48 BB, .176 OBA) and Cassidy Curd (1.29 ERA, 119 1/3 IP, 156 SO, 29 BB, .147 OBA).
Alabama
National seed: 14
Record: 38-18 (10-14 SEC)
Offense: .252/.351/.386, 41 HR, 50 2B, 9 3B, 232 R, 41/49 SB
Pitching: 1.89 ERA, 388 1/3 IP, 354 SO, 131 BB, 26 HB, .210 OBA
Defense: .968 FLD%, 53 errors, 40 unearned runs
Notable: One of these teams does not look like the others and it’s the Crimson Tide with its .252 batting average, it’s mere 41 home runs and its super light .386 slugging percentage. What it has, though, is pitching that’s been strong throughout the season and quite strong lately, not yielding more than three runs, earned or unearned combined, in any of its last nine games. Still, it’s hard to think much of the Tide, who’ve been shut out seven times this season and scored only one run five other times … even if they won all five of those games.