The Oklahoma City Thunder are a much better basketball team than you've been led to believe
Where to begin.
All right, how about this?
When I began to think about this column, a headline popped into my head:
“As to the Thunder, believe the hype.”
Then I realized it was a terrible headline.
What hype?
Maybe somebody around here had the Thunder winning, say, 46 games, but I never heard it. Everything I heard was lower.
Even as the season reached a few weeks old, as a sports radio topic, Oklahoma City’s NBA team only received the most begrudging credit.
Hosts who might have originally asked if the Thunder were a play-in team again, might ask if they could become a No. 8 Western Conference seed or better.
Then they might have wondered if OKC could reach No. 6, foregoing play-in madness altogether.
Now they may wonder, just maybe, if the Thunder might nab a fourth seed, earning home court in the playoffs' first round.
Still, what nobody’s asking is if they might make a run at a Western Conference crown, which, you may know, is the ticket to The Finals.
My recommendation?
Pretend the Thunder have been bathed and slathered in hype.
Now, believe it.
Following Tuesday’s 116-97 home-court victory over Memphis, the Thunder are 17-8, in second place in the West behind Minnesota (20-5), which they’ll meet Dec. 26, also at home, after taking on both LAs, Clippers and Lakers, Thursday and Saturday, also at home.
The preseason betting line on OKC’s victory total this year was 44.5, far more positive a forecast than local prognosticators’ predilections, but the Thunder are on pace to prove far better than that.
Should they play to their .680 winning percentage over the full season, their win total will be 56.
They’re not doing it with smoke and mirrors.
Statistically, they’re right where they’re supposed to be.
OKC carries a No. 9 offensive rating of 117.3 and a No. 6 defensive rating of 110.1 — each a measure of points scored or allowed per 100 possessions — making for a third-best-in-the NBA 7.2 net rating, trailing only Philadelphia (11.4) and Boston (9).
Again, the squad’s led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose 30.7-point average ranks fourth in the league, whose 6.4-assist average rank 16th and whose 2.8-steal average leads the entire league. Also, whose — advanced stats alert! — 30.8 player efficiency rating and 5.1 win shares both rank third.
There’s more.
The Thunder are suddenly a terrific 3-point shooting.
After hitting 35.6 percent, ranking 17th, a year ago, they’re hitting 38.2 percent, ranking fifth.
How is that possible?
You’re not going to believe it, but rookie Cason Wallace, the 10th pick in the draft, selected by Dallas but traded to OKC, which selected 12th, who’s earned a regular spot in the rotation and a recent start when Lu Dort was out, leads the whole league at 50 percent (27 of 54) beyond-the-arc accuracy.
Isaiah Joe is hitting 42.4 percent (59 of 139), 26th in the league.
And though they haven’t put up enough tries to qualify in the category, Aaron Wiggins is hitting 47.8 percent (11 of 23) from deep, Kenrich Williams is hitting 42.9 percent (12 of 28), and even Dort is hitting 40.6 percent (41 of 101), 37th in the league.
Then, there’s Chet.
Chet Holmgren, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 draft, playing his first season after a foot fracture knocked him out of last season, has been a game changer.
Even at 7-foot-1, he’s hitting 37.3 percent from 3-point land. He’s also averaging 16.9 points, 8 rebounds and a third-best-in-the-league 2.8 blocked shots — including a combined 17 blocks his previous two games — and if rookie of the year voting were to be held right now, there’s a real good chance he’d edge out San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama, the 7-foot-4 first pick in the draft.
Want more?
How about this:
Though Dort’s 28 minutes ranks fourth on the roster, he was playing 30.7 last season and though Josh Giddey’s 25.6 minutes ranks fifth, he was playing 31.1 last season.
They might not like it, but it’s a fool-proof indicator the Thunder are improving quickly, unable to keep players behind them off the floor.
The benefactors have been Wallace (21.8) and Joe (20.4), who frequently find themselves on the floor in late-game clutch moments while Dort, Giddy or both do not.
It makes perfect sense because both are better shooters than Dort, Wallace is in Dort’s neighborhood defensively and both take care of the ball far better than Giddy.
The moral of the story?
This is who they are.
Not who they’re going to be.
They’re going to be better.
But this is who they are right now.
The national folks understand.
In ESPN’s most recent NBA power rankings, the Thunder stand fifth behind Boston, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Milwaukee.
But take that with a grain of salt. The list is six days old and the new one, out today, must take into account OKC’s four-day-old road win over reigning league champ Denver.
The Thunder are fourth in NBA.com’s power rankings, trailing Boston, Minnesota and Philadelphia. They are also fifth in those put together by The Athletic’s Zach Harper, behind Minnesota, Boston, Denver and Milwaukee.
Or fifth with an asterisk.
Harper breaks the teams into tiers, the top tier being “Contenders,” who he believes “are contending for the championship, barring a massive injury.”
He had the Thunder No. 5 a week ago, too, but he did not make them “Contenders.”
Now he does.
You can jump on the bandwagon now.
The Thunder are really, really good.
I heard one guy, sadly I forget who, talking about how the Thunder could very possibly stay above 500 this year. Heh.