The big question facing Sooner softball
Though ranked No. 1, not-so-dominant pitching will leave OU vulnerable come the postseason
We should begin by saying the regular season is not yet over.
Coach Patty Gasso’s Oklahoma softball team has three games remaining beginning Thursday at Texas A&M.
The Sooners (46-6, 18-3 SEC) will enter College Station as a big favorite. And yet, if everything falls just right on their diamond and a few others, the Aggies (35-14, 15-6) could still grab an SEC regular season crown, despite beginning the weekend fifth in the conference standings.
After that comes the conference tournament where, presuming OU maintains its top spot in the regular-season conference standings, the Sooners would play one, two or three games in the single-elimination event.
And after that, finally, the NCAA postseason arrives, in which OU’s bound to host a regional and almost equally bound to host a super regional.
The Sooners will be at home for that super regional, and they’ll probably win it for myriad reasons like they’re ranked No. 1, appear to be the best team in the nation’s best conference, are the nation’s most dangerous offensive squad and last missed the Women’s College World Series in 2010.
They’re just not the shoo-in they’ve tended to be through the years because what they absolutely do not have—and there’s no way around it—is dominant pitching.
They have good pitching.
But not amazing pitching, nor even great pitching.
It’s just, well, different.
A year ago, they were in a similar boat, with a team earned run average that finished at 2.66, yet still they had an ace in Sam Landry and her sub-2.00 ERA.
This time around, the team’s at 2.90, 25th in the nation, and there’s no ace to speak of, just Audrey Lowry and her 2.45 ERA, who’s thrown about 22 more innings than the staff’s No. 2, Miali Guachino, who’s at 2.68.
Nor is there any chance of Lowry turning dominant, as has sometimes happened with Sooner pitchers in the past.
Lowry can be quite good, she can keep opponents off balance in the box and she can keep her walks down to about one every five innings as she’s done all season.
Yet, because she’s not a strikeout pitcher—just 71 in 102 2/3 innings—the ball will be in play, putting bad luck and the possibility of poor fielding on the table (though the latter’s unlikely given the Sooners’ third-in-the-nation .985 fielding percentage).
If you’re a Sooner fan, I know what you’re thinking.
Have you seen their offensive numbers? Have you seen their batting average, their slugging, their home runs? Do you realize they’re an historic hitting team?
Well, yes, yes, yes and absolutely.
We should probably mention it and I’ve got a few favorites that tell the story.
Six of OU’s everyday bats are hitting north of .400.
Kai Minor, Lexi McDaniel, Abby Dayton, Ella Parker, Gabbie Garcia, and Emily Emerling.
Five of their everyday bats carry on-base percentages more than 100 points higher than their batting average, which is bananas and an undeniable tribute to hitting coach JT Gasso.
Dayton (.436 BA/.545 OBP), Parker (.430/.548), Ailana Agbayani (.397/.517), Kasidi Pickering (.396/.514), Kendall Wells (.377/.486).
The player with the lowest batting average among those everyday players is nonetheless making the biggest national (and local) headlines.
That’s Wells, a freshman, who’s already set a program single-season home run record with 36—the great Jocelyn Alo hit 34 twice—who’s 1.113 slugging percentage somehow ranks only third in the nation behind UCLA’s Megan Grant (1.372) and Jordan Woolery (1.267).
Grant’s hit 34 home runs and Woolery 31.
It’s crazy.
Once there was a time hitting .300 was kind of a big deal on the softball diamond. That ended, and still, even very good teams carried weak bats at the bottom of the batting order. That’s mostly gone, too.
It’s all gone at OU.
The Sooners’ .404 team batting average ranks tops in the nation, their .499 on-base percentage ranks second to UCLA’s .500, and their .832 slugging percentage ranks second to UCLA’s .841.
Just don’t make the case the Bruins’ offense is better.
UCLA, after all, plays in the Big 10, which includes two top-10 programs, itself at No. 7 and No. 3 Nebraska. Meanwhile the SEC claims seven in No. 1 OU, No. 2 Alabama, No. 4 Texas, No. 6 Arkansas, No. 8 Florida, No. 9 Tennessee and No. 10 Texas A&M.
There won’t be as many fans at Kentucky’s John Cropp Stadium for the SEC tournament as there will be for the Women’s College World Series in Oklahoma City, but the quality of play should be every bit as good and, you never know, maybe a little better.
And in at least a few games at both venues, you’re bound to get what used to be commonplace, that used to have everybody understanding softball was first and foremost a pitchers’ game.
In those games and all the others it’s better to have the best pitcher on the diamond and frequently OU won’t.
What happens then?
Like, can the Sooners beat their old teammate, Nebraska’s Jordy Bahl (or, as she’s now called, post-marriage, Jordy Frahm), whose ERA is 1.30 and who’s struck out 174 in 129 2/3 innings?
Can they beat Tennessee’s Sage Mardjetko, whose ERA is 0.93? Or Erin Nuwer, her teammate, whose ERA is 1.04?
Or so many others they may wind up facing.
It’s a great question. Nobody knows the answer.
It’s just different.
Very different.
Many fans as expected refuse to acknowledge what you aptly observe about OU pitching. We do not have a great pitcher and that matters in the post season.