Sooners can beat 'Bama, just don't ask how
Here’s the truth.
You can think Oklahoma’s bound to beat Alabama a second time in five weeks Friday night, this time at Owen Field rather than Bryant-Denny Stadium.
You can think it because the Sooners clipped the Tide in Tuscaloosa and this time they’re in Norman, and you can think it because they’re bound to be healthier having not taken the field in three weeks and for the Tide’s it’s been only two.
So go ahead and think it.
What you can’t do, though, is have any predilection toward how OU might do it.
You can predict it will include great defense, but that’s all you get and it’s all you get because the Sooners have no winning formula because no team ever got to 10-2 overall and 6-2 in a crazy difficult conference the way the Sooners have, as the beneficiaries of made plays nobody could have seen coming and as the recipients of plays not made by their opponents nobody could have seen coming.
It’s not exactly smoke and mirrors, not quite, but once the stat sheet’s examined, that’s often how it’s felt.
And until those made plays and missed plays come, it must be confounding as all get out for Sooner fans, because hoping for a lightning strike is akin to waiting for nothing.
Just so you know, for the same reasons, the Sooners are confounding to write about, too, for how can one handicap the utterly unpredictable?
What can be counted on?
Two things.
One, terrific defense.
Two, get the ball inside the opponent 40 and it’s three points in your pocket (and usually no more).
Other than that, nada.
The Sooners beat the Tide 23-21 back on Nov. 15 and the number of out-of-the-blue plays required to win, to even have a shot, is at least four.
One, OU’s first field goal was set up by Isaiah Sategna’s 42-yard punt return and if not for the field position Sategna earned, the Sooners’ first possession would have been a three-and-out.
Two, Eli Bowen’s pick-six interception, an 87-yard return, putting OU up 10-0 despite getting nothing from the offense.
Three, ’Bama’s Conor Talty’s missed field goal from 36 yards.
Talty’s struggled this season, and still it was his only miss in five tries from 30 to 40 yards.
Four, Tate Sandell’s early-in-the-fourth-quarter game-winner from 24 was only made possible by Taylor Wein’s sack and forced fumble and Kendal Daniels’ recovery.
Oh, yeah, Sandell kicked a 52-yarder another time the offense sputtered, but that’s just what he does.
The Sooners needed every one of those plays to win by two points on a day ’Bama rolled up 406 yards of offense to OU’s 212.
OU was dead in the water at Tennessee, too.
The Vols went right down the field, 75 yards, to begin the game and lead 7-0 and were 24 yards from going up 14-0 on its next possession until Owen Heinecke sacked Joey Aguilar, popping the ball loose, allowing R Mason Thomas to pick it up and return it 71 yards to tie the game.
You know what that game was before Heinecke’s and Thomas’ heroics?
It was 2000 against Nebraska, when the Huskers led 14-0 fast only for OU to score the next 31 points and get itself ranked No. 1.
But that was never going to happen in Knoxville, because Josh Heupel and Curtis Fagan were not walking through that door.
Instead, the Sooners got their first miracle play of the season, making Red November possible.
And though they weren’t quite miracles, OU’s victory over LSU included an end zone interception from Bowen and a Tiger secondary bust so big, Sategna had a whole side of the field to himself, making for an easy pitch-and-catch 58-yard game-winning toss from John Mateer with 4:13 remaining.
Back when the season began and a few weeks into it, my pregame columns tended to be lists: “Four ways to look at today’s huge game” (Michigan); “Four ways Sooners can improve even if Owls are no good” (Temple); “How to get from here to there against Auburn,” which came with another four-things list.
Now, that’s abandoned.
Well, actually, here you go.
1. Create turnovers
2. Don’t turn it over
3. At least a hint of a running game
4. A pre-thumb injury performance from Mateer
But it’s a list with no insight.
Redundant to the core.
It’s abandoned because how many times can we ask the offensive line to improve or Mateer to turn back the clock?
They’ve had time off, so maybe that’s something, maybe? Still, if any offense has earned the lack of confidence of its fans, it’s the Sooners’.
Over 12 games, OU ranks 88th in the nation in total offense at 353.7 yards per game and 77th in scoring offense (which includes defensive points) at 26.4 points per game.
Against conference foes, OU ranks 14th of 16 SEC teams in total offense at 308.9 and 11th in points at 21.5.
That’s not very good — obviously — yet here the Sooners are, in the playoff, with a chance.
OU’s a 1-point favorite, but what good is any line involving a team (or two) nobody can get their arms around.
Will the Sooners win?
Maybe.
Best I can do.
Best anybody can do.