Republican poll bad news for Walters, good news for Drummond (and Democrats, too)
I’m not saying a Democrat’s going to shock us and become our next governor, though I’d love to see it happen and I’d love to see Brad Henry try.
Oh, wait, he can’t.
Two terms in the bag already.
But wouldn’t it be nice to see the guy who left behind a 17th-ranked public school system reappear on the scene, if only for nostalgic contrast?
In fact, whoever wins the Democratic nomination would be wise to recruit Henry, still just 61 years old, to be an active campaigner, even if just in television spots telling it like it is.
But enough of terrific free advice involving a previous governor, because while this will indeed be about the governor’s race, alas, it will no longer be about Brad Henry.
It’s about a poll that showed up two Wednesdays ago designed to tell us what Oklahoma Republicans are thinking about their side of the 2026 governor’s race and the news is not only good, but instructive to Democrats, too.
Released under the branding of “Sooner Survey” from the political research firm of Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (CHS), it asked 500 registered Oklahoma Republicans for thoughts on their candidates, declared or not.
According to the poll’s creators, it carries a margin of error of 4.3%.
The nonprofit online newsroom The Frontier has already written about it and you can read that here.
The poll’s creators produced a much longer and detailed description of its findings, which you can read about here.
Or you can stick with me and return to them later.
Here we go.
One, state attorney general Gentner Drummond has a huge lead.
If the election were held today (or two Wednesdays ago), 39% of respondents said they’d vote for Drummond, while just 12% said they’d vote for state superintendent Ryan Walters, which is barely more than the 10% who pledged allegiance to utterly inconsequential lieutenant governor Matt Pinnell.
Others polled include former house speaker Charles McCall (5%), Chip Keating (3%), Mike Mazzei (1%) and Jake Merrick (1%).
And when respondents were asked for their second choice, Walters’ hit just 11%, behind Drummond’s 13% and Pinnell’s 20%.
The poll’s creators appear to be doing what they can to make Walters appear to have a real chance.
Like, the headline above CHS’ report on its own poll reads “DRUMMOND MAINTAINS LEAD OVER WALTERS,” above a subhead that reads “WHILE DIFFICULT, PATH FOR WALTERS DOES EXIST.”
I’m not so sure about that.
The best news for Walters came down to a question that appeared to imagine a one-on-one primary runoff between him and a generic foe.
In it, 15% said they’d vote for Walters in any race for any office; 29% said they would probably vote for Walters; 11% said they’d probably not vote for Walters; 33% said they will definitely not vote for Walters.
Undecided grabbed 12%.
Add it up and it’s 44% going both ways. But it also means Walters’ true believers are no more than 15% OF HIS OWN PARTY, while his not-in-a-million-years anti-constituency is more than twice that.
Then there’s the matter of favorables and unfavorables.
Drummond pulled 53% favorable and only 17% unfavorable compared to Walters going 37% both ways.
It would be better if Walters’ favorability was deep underwater, but we already know his ride-or-die number’s only 15% and he’s the first choice of only 12% and the second choice of only 11%.
Not a good place to be.
Perhaps that’s why he’s yet to enter the race (or never will).
It’s hard to imagine Walters standing a chance unless a lot of folks change their mind about him and who’s going to do that?
He’s exactly the kind of candidate whose numbers are unlikely to move because he’s spent the last few years telling everybody exactly who he is.
Pinnell and the others can still introduce themselves, but Walters?
Uh, no.
So that’s one.
Here’s two and it’s more good news.
Though Drummond has lately busied himself leaping into Donald Trump’s lap hoping to appeal to the ignorant and unwashed among his party, he’s still spent the vast majority of his time as attorney general righteously and rightly being a thorn in governor Kevin Stitt’s and Walters’ sides.
A measure of the bankruptcy of his party, all that’s required has been a willingness to embrace the rule of law, standing for good government and against corruption.
Not that it hasn’t kept him busy.
So, isn’t it interesting the man who’s rocked his own party’s boat so rightly and so often is also the heavy favorite of that party?
In fact, even if it’s Drummond against the field in CHS’ poll, it’s still Drummond 39%, the field 32% and undecided 31%.
All of which should be great information for Democrats, that civilian Oklahoma Republicans have no great loyalty to elected Republicans who act like elected Republicans.
Take a look at Drummond.
He’s for a clear separation of church and state.
He put all of his political capital on the line to get a man on death row a new trial.
He ended law suits filed by his predecessor designed to give political cover to Stitt (Swadley’s Bar-B-Q) and Walters (Class Wallet).
He went to war with Stitt’s war on tribal nations.
But for the gross politics he’s practiced since declaring his gubernatorial candidacy, he’s done a heck of a job AND he’s way up in the most up to date poll measuring that candidacy.
So maybe Democrats will have an easier time not being afraid of their own shadow come 2026, not being afraid to act like Democrats who are furious over the focus and results of awful elected Republicans.
They should lambaste their legislative opponents for giving away hundreds of millions of dollars to wealthy parents already sending their children to private schools.
They should lambaste their opponents for treating women like baby factories with no right to self determination. They should own their abortion positions and make Republicans defend theirs.
They should create a list of five (or 10 or 20 or 50) things in this state that don’t have to be the way they are but are anyway solely because Republican leadership and Republican legislative super-majorities have made them that way in Oklahoma.
They should do all kinds of things and they just might work because, if the CHS poll is accurate, even Republican voters are tired of what Republican office holders have wrought in Oklahoma.
If they weren’t, the most anti-Republican in the Republican field wouldn’t own a huge lead, yet Drummond does.
Of course, Dems could lose, but they’re losing already and have been forever.
Should they campaign like they mean it, like they care and don’t mind showing it, and still lose, they’re sure to lose more narrowly. Also, they’d go down swinging and that alone would be progress.