John Mateer's time needs to be now
To top 'Bama, Sooner quarterback must play the game he's not yet played
Let’s say you’re scanning college football stats hoping to get a read on Saturday, when Oklahoma travels to Alabama.
It kicks at 2:30 p.m., or thereabouts.
It’s on ABC.
But let’s say you’re scanning stats and, hey, right there, it says OU plays better defense than Alabama.
That’s right, OU’s allowing a seventh-in-the-nation 264.2 yards of total offense per game and an eighth-best 14.1 points per game. Meanwhile, Alabama’s allowing an 18th-best 303.2 and a 13th-best 17.2.
Advantage Sooners, right?
Wrong.
Though we can quibble about the vagaries of the SEC schedule, the more specific numbers favor the Crimson Tide.
I can’t tell you why, but the least appreciated stats in college football are conference stats vs. overall stats. Everybody prefers to see how they stack up against the nation, which is reasonable and interesting, but not particularly telling.
You know what’s telling?
In six games against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, South Carolina and LSU, Alabama’s allowed an average 331.7 yards and 18.3 points, ranking second and first in the SEC, while OU, in five games against Auburn, Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Tennessee, has allowed 340 yards and 21.6 points, ranking third and third.
And, if you’re wondering, the Tide carries the conference offensive advantage, too, gaining 375 yards per game at 5.5 per snap, scoring 27.8 points, while the Sooners average a dead-last-in-the-SEC 318 yards, a next-to-last 4.9 per snap, scoring a 10th-best 23 points.
How’s OU leveraging last-in-the-conference yardage numbers into almost-middle-of-the-pack scoring? That would be Tate Sandell, king of 50-yard-plus field goals.
If they played it on paper, the Sooners would stand little chance. But they don’t, the unexpected frequently occurs, a player or two or three capable of grabbing a spotlight nobody figured they’d grab.
So when you look at OU and Alabama trying to imagine victorious Sooner scenarios, what have you got?
I’ve got John Mateer.
It’s not a prediction, rather a declaration that should the Sooners prevail, he’ll be the reason, perhaps with late-game help from Xavier Robinson, keeping the Tide offense off the field.
Let’s investigate.
Though everybody wants to believe in Mateer — No. 1 quarterback in the portal, brief Heisman Trophy favorite, guy with Baker Mayfield vibes — has he ever played a signature game?
At OU, not even close.
Because Illinois State, an FCS opponent, doesn’t count, he’s not yet thrown for 300 yards as a Sooner and, in two of his last three, South Carolina and Tennessee, he didn’t even throw for 160.
You likely remember him fondly from OU’s 24-13 victory over Michigan, when he ran 19 times for 74 yards, offering a toughness Sooner Nation celebrated.
You’re right to remember it fondly and still, as a thrower, he was only a little better than pedestrian, completing 21 of 34 for 270 yards, countering his only touchdown toss with an interception for 132.3 passing-efficiency, a figure that would rank him 80th nationally had he achieved it every game, rather than his season-long 130.2, ranking him 82nd.
Again, because you might be interested, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin leads the nation at 192.6 efficiency, well beyond Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, No. 2, at 178.6.
Barring FCS opponents, Mateer’s achieved a 190-plus rating four times, all of them at Washington State: two in losses to New Mexico and Oregon State, and two in wins over Utah State and Hawaii.
The Aggies and Rainbow Warriors, however, are not the Crimson Tide.
Consider, for a moment, the pinballing conventional wisdom thrown upon Mateer only this season.
First, he’s a Heisman contender and certainly a one-season starter before heading to the NFL, leaving Michael Hawkins and who knows who else to vie for next year’s job.
Second, he’s rattled, he can’t play, what’s going on, who is this guy?
Third, where we might be now, perhaps he’ll come back, that would be great, and still there must be competition because the quarterbacking OU really needs is not the quarterbacking it’s getting.
Something like that.
Saturday, though, is a moment.
I’ve thought about it being OU’s biggest regular-season game since … and here’s what I’ve got.
Alabama last season, a victory that may have saved Brent Venables’ job; Baylor in ’19, the sixth-ranked Sooners needing to beat the seventh-ranked Bears at the Big 12 title game to reach the playoff; the ’18 title game, fifth-ranked OU needing revenge over ninth-ranked Texas to reach the playoff; ’08 Bedlam, when Sam Bradford went tilt-a-whirl down the sideline to keep OU playoff-bound.
This feels bigger.
Because it’s Alabama; because of the soap opera that’s surrounded Venables since arrival; because it’s not the Big 12 anymore; because another playoff hangs in the balance; because we’re still waiting on Mateer to really shine.
It feels more like Kansas State in the middle of 2000’s Red October is what it feels like.
If Mateer’s really the guy so many believe he can be, maybe he’ll be that guy in Tuscaloosa.
The stage is set.