It doesn't figure to be easy, but it might be if the Sooners can do these things against Tigers
Oklahoma’s a 6 1/2-point favorite for its 11 a.m. Saturday kickoff against Missouri and if you’ve been watching the last three weeks that’s about right.
In that span, the Sooners have shocked the nation, topping Tennessee and Alabama in Knoxville and Tuscaloosa despite being outgained by wide margins by the Vols and Tide both.
What OU’s done, through tremendous situational defense and finally nabbing a few turnovers, is create a sense of inevitability.
From appearing dead in the water following an embarrassing loss to Texas, to suffering a home-field loss to Ole Miss that cast real doubt on both its offense and defense, it’s since rebounded to become the No. 8 team in the College Football Playoff rankings, not to mention the highest-ranked two-loss team on the list.
Winning Saturday and next Saturday, also at home, against LSU, the Sooners could find themselves yet higher. But the catch is just that, winning, and if they’re inevitable, they’ll just keep being it, coming up with the timely and huge plays required to keep pounding out W’s.
But if the numbers mean anything, against these Tigers at least, OU may need to be a more consistent version of itself, one that rediscovers its offense, to win.
A few quick stats.
Against conference opponents, Missouri’s actually in front of OU in total defense, fourth in the league, allowing 341.5 yards per game, while the Sooners come in at 351. Still, OU’s been stingier in points allowed, giving up a third-in-the-league 21.5, while Missouri’s allowed 24.3.
Offensively — stunner — the Tigers are ahead of the Sooners, averaging 25.3 points, 370.3 yards and 5.5 per snap, ranking eighth, eighth and seventh against league foes, while OU averages 23, 300.3 and 4.8, ranking 11th, 16th and 13th.
There is, though, this.
Missouri’s conference slate to date includes South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Mississippi State. OU’s includes Auburn, Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama.
Each is a tough road, but the Sooners’ a little tougher, and against that tougher road OU is 4-2 and Missouri is 3-3.
One other note.
It had appeared the Sooners would be facing Missouri quarterback Matt Zollers, a true freshman who began the season third on the depth chart. Instead, it may now be Beau Pribula, co-No. 1 to begin the season alongside Sam Horn, who broke his right tibia opening day against Central Arkansas.
Zollers suffered a dislocated right ankle on Oct. 25 against Vanderbilt but miraculously no fracture and, now cleared to play, on Friday moved from “doubtful” to “questionable” to take the field against OU.
So, there you go.
We could stop there.
But let’s not.
Here are four things the Sooners might do to overcome Missouri.
Keep getting 50-yard-plus FGs from Tate Sandell
Look, we could have gone big picture, talking offense and defense, but the truth is no Sooner’s been more valuable than Sandell and it’s not close. He’s made 21 of 22 field goals and seven from beyond 50 yards.
OU would be nowhere without him.
And, if we’re honest, expecting John Mateer to play like he did against, say, Auburn, rather than how he’s played since coming back from thumb surgery, may be unrealistic, so you’ve got to start with Sandell.
He kicked three field goals against Alabama and four against Tennessee, three of them longer than 50 yards. If OU can’t score touchdowns, and it hasn’t been, it’s got to get points, and Sandell’s delivered.
Mount sacks and TFLs
You might have noticed, for a defense some think to be the nation’s best, the Sooners aren’t even atop their conference in the big categories. They are, though, No. 1 against conference foes in sacks per game at 4.2 and No. 1 nationally in tackles for loss per game at 10.2, almost two more than No. 2 Indiana at 8.5.
Stops like that can break an offense’s spirit, make it vulnerable to turnovers and make an entire team underperform what the numbers say it should be.
I’ve written about OU doing it with smoke and mirrors.
Sacks and TFLs are what smoke and mirrors look like.
More accuracy or more yards from Mateer
Though we’d love Mateer to shock us, we’re not asking for miracles, so consider this a one-or-the-other request.
Over his last four games — South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama — Mateer has completed 63.3 percent (69 of 109) for 670 yards or 6.2 per attempt, which is abysmal. His season yards-per-attempt average is 7.2, 76th nationally, and lately he hasn’t been close to that.
So, if he can’t throw downfield — he hasn’t been — he needs to complete at least 70 percent, which should keep drives going to the end zone rather than stalling out at the 35 and demanding a 52-yard kick from Sandell. Or he can maintain his percentage but start connecting vertically, bringing big plays back to the Sooner offense.
Pick one.
Run the ball
Against South Carolina, Tori Blaylock ran for 101 yards on 19 carries and Xavier Robinson 58 on 11.
Against Ole Miss and Tennessee, Robinson rightly arrested the top spot from Blaylock, gaining 225 yards on 25 carries, yet Blaylock did almost nothing against the Rebels and Vols, picking up 10 yards on seven carries, and last Saturday at Alabama, the two combined for 35 yards, 34 of them Robinson’s.
Robinson should be No. 1, but if he can’t be a 30-carry guy, Blaylock needs to contribute. Mateer remains a run-game wild card, but the Sooner backs need to be effective again.
Wait, one more
Consider this a bonus.
Missouri’s averaging a conference-best 207 rushing yards per game at 5.3 per carry, fueled by running back Ahmad Hardy’s conference-best 125.7 and conference-best 6.5.
What OU can’t allow is Missouri mounting scoring drives that last 7–10 minutes while Mateer throws incompletions on third-and-3, third-and-4, third-and-5, third-and-6 and third-and-7.
If I had to pick a way OU loses, it would be that.
The Sooners can’t let it happen.
Enjoy the game.
Hey Clay — really appreciate this. As a longtime sportswriter, the grit you bring to life on and off the field is inspiring. You don’t sugarcoat how hard the climb is, but you make it feel worth it. Looking forward to more reflections and stories — you’ve got a strong team behind you, even if it’s just readers like me.