For Thunder, it doesn't get bigger than tonight
If Oklahoma City is to believe it's better than than San Antonio, it must win tonight
You want a game that matters?
How about the most important regular-season game of the season?
Because that’s what we’ve got tonight, on national television (NBC), too.
It’s the season’s literal midpoint, contest No. 41 of an 82-game slate.
It’s Oklahoma City (33-7) playing the team right behind it in the Western Conference, San Antonio (27-12), which not only brings 7-foot-4 Victor Wembanyama — the league’s most difficult player against whom to play — but which has beaten OKC three straight times already, disrupting everything we thought we knew about the Thunder.
As you may recall, OKC met San Antonio in the NBA’s in-season tourney in Las Vegas back on Dec. 13, the Thunder happening to be on a 16-game winning streak, winners of 24 of 25 games to begin the season.
The Spurs won that one 111-109.
Ten days later in the Alamo City, OKC found itself embarrassed, turning a 77-72 third-quarter San Antonio lead into a 130-110 San Antonio victory after being outscored 43-28 in the fourth quarter.
Two days after that, at Paycom Center, it happened again, almost as bad, the Spurs scoring 69 first-half points on the way to a 117-102 triumph.
Not a good sign for tonight, in all of those games Wembanyama was on a minutes restriction, coming off the bench to play 21 minutes in the first one, 23 minutes in the second and 26 minutes in the third.
Lately, he’s been back in the starting lineup, among the Spurs’ first five in four of his last seven games, playing an average of 26 minutes, averaging 26.4 points, 9.4 rebounds and 2.1 blocks.
In the Thunder’s previous three losses to the Spurs, Wembanyama averaged 18 points, 8.3 rebounds and one block. Of course, if you watched, you know his greatest impact doesn’t show up in his stats, but in his opponents’ or beyond the box score completely.
It’s how his presence keeps reigning league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from living in the paint or reaching the rim.
It’s the shots he changes from everybody within 12 feet of the basket, not to mention all the rim bunnies Chet Holmgren fails to put in the scoring column when forced to face him. It’s the shots opponents never take and the field-goal percentage on the shots they do.
It’s even Thunder coach Mark Daigneault’s propensity to sacrificially guard Wembanyama with the 11-inches-shorter Alex Caruso; there not to stop him once he gets the ball, but to move heaven and earth to keep him from getting it in the first place. Because every moment Caruso draws the impossible assignment is a moment he’s not forcing turnovers on the perimeter, a factor that came into play Dec. 23 and 25, when the Spurs turned it over just nine and 13 times against a Thunder team forcing a league-best 18.3 giveaways per game.
In its previous three tries against the Spurs, the Thunder shot 41.3 percent (38 of 92), 54.1 percent (46 of 85) and 38.9 percent (37 of 95) overall, and 24.3 percent (9 of 37), 40 percent (12 of 30) and 25 percent (11 of 44) from beyond the 3-point arc.
As it happens, OKC appears to be emerging from the slide San Antonio sent it into.
Following game No. 37, a 124-97 home-court loss to hapless Charlotte, OKC had won just six of its previous 12.
Since, the Thunder have won three straight, each its own singular achievement.
They survived Utah in overtime, 129-125, last Wednesday.
They knocked off Memphis in Memphis, 117-116, on Friday despite being without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, Caruso and Jaylin Williams and despite trailing by 13 points entering the fourth quarter.
They topped Miami 124-112 on Sunday, finally looking like themselves again in a contest their lead reached 18 points with less than 2 1/2 minutes remaining.
You’d think after spanking OKC three straight, San Antonio would have taken off in the Western Conference standings. Proving basketball’s a funny game, they haven’t.
The first night the Spurs beat the Thunder marked their third victory in what became an eight-game winning streak. Since, San Antonio has gone 4-5, losing to Utah, Cleveland and Portland at home and Memphis and Minnesota on the road.
With the Thunder still leading the conference, still owning the NBA’s best record and still with one remaining game against the Spurs after tonight — Feb. 4 — you may not want to call this a must-win.
But you should.
If OKC were to lose tonight yet beat San Antonio in early February, it would feel like a consolation prize, like the Spurs might still have the Thunder’s number. Because what’s one game in February up against three victories in 12 days in December?
No, to have momentum against the team most capable of preventing their return to the NBA Finals, tonight’s a must-win for the Thunder.
It’s about confidence and expectations on both sides, and OKC can’t afford to give San Antonio any more of either.
It’s a big, big, big game.
Biggest one of the regular season.
Tonight.
You nailed why this game feels pivitol - its not just about standings, it's about wether OKC can solve the Wembanyama puzzle before it matters in a playoff series. The psycological edge San Antonio's building with three straight wins is the kind of thing that can haunt a team in June. I remeber watching the Thunder's old core struggle against specific matchups and never quite figuring it out when it counted, so fixing this now feels more urgent than just another regular season W.