Since deciding to add political science as my second major in the fall of ’88, The Cook Political Report’s been on my radar.
Already it had become a sort of political bible, consumed voraciously by political pros and, I presume, political science professors who could expense it rather than pay for it themselves.
It’s the brainchild of Charlie Cook, created in his 30s and still going strong into his 70s, and for an annual $350 you can consume it, too. And if you really like Charlie’s work, you can read his weekly column in The National Journal, a D.C. inside-dope endeavor, charging a mere $475 a year.
Anyway, the Cook Report’s senate and governors editor, Jessica Taylor, as reported by The Hill, yet another D.C. news source, some of whose content is free, just made changes to its analysis of four gubernatorial races, each in favor of the Democrat, one of whom is, wait for it, Cyndi Munson.
Yes, it took a while to get to the news, but isn’t it good to know the weight of the prognosticator?
Too bad the Cook Report’s not saying Munson’s likely to defeat Mazzei, only that a race once “solid Republican” has moved to “likely Republican.”
Also, The Hill, via Taylor, reports, “the Republican Governors Association recently purchased more than $2 million in ads to support Mazzei and says that private Democratic polling previously showed a competitive race.”
The point of which is, why sink $2 million in advertising into Oklahoma — which could have gone to Texas where Greg Abbott is in real trouble — unless Mazzei’s showing weakness himself, perhaps because everybody realizes he’s an empty suit lacking all substance, whose only hope is to scare the electorate into going with yet another nothing-to-it Republican, only the electorate appears closer and closer to not falling for the same old shenanigans.
Or maybe that’s just me.
So there’s that.
Also, though I might have hoped for yet better good news on this front, Jena Nelson remains very much alive in her 5th District race to reach the U.S. House of Representatives, unseating Stephanie Bice to get there.
Where data’s concerned, Nelson’s campaign would really like everybody to understand the results of a weeks-old poll conducted by GBAO, a Democratically aligned polling firm with a D.C. address.
It found her to be trailing 48 percent to 43 percent with a margin of error of 4.4 percent, yes, but that’s not all it found.
Allow me to paraphrase her campaign’s release about it, sent Oct. 2, and as far as I can tell, entirely ignored by local media:
Once voters hear from both candidates, Nelson and Bice are tied at 48 percent. Nelson is winning 55 percent of independents while Bice is deeply unpopular with them: 20 percent favorable; 51 percent unfavorable. And, among voters who know Nelson, she leads 61 percent to 30 percent.
The first paragraph of the same release included these words, which are not a paraphrase, but a quote:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee [DCCC] added Oklahoma’s 5th District to its Districts in Play, putting Representative Stephanie Bice on the committee’s 2026 target list.
I can’t be certain that means the DCCC is sending mountains of cash Nelson’s way, but you’ve got to believe it’s offering help in ways it wasn’t before because resources are precious and there are some seats Democrats will never turn, like, say, Tom Cole’s 4th District seat as long as he wants it.
Still, good news, right?
The release from Nelson’s campaign was sprinkled with other hopeful nuggets.
Like, Donald Trump is underwater 11 points, 53 percent unfavorable to 42 percent favorable, among 5th District voters.
Like, via text-to-web and telephone interviews, 89 percent of Democratic voters in the district rate themselves 10 of 10 on a motivation scale, compared to 71 percent of Republicans.
Like, perhaps best of all, the polling took place Sept. 17-20, and MAGA has done nothing but crash and burn and crash and burn since.
Come to think of it, the fact Bice refuses to meet her constituents at in-person town halls and refuses to meet Nelson on the debate stage suddenly makes all the sense in the world.
By debating Nelson, by even holding a live town hall in which Nelson’s name might be said, Nelson becomes better known and thus elevated, to say nothing of the media attention a debate would bring, further elevating her name. And given Nelson’s a two-to-one favorite among those with recognition of her, Bice, who’s clearly playing defense, can’t take the risk.
Which might make her a shrewd politician, also a coward.
I confess, I’d like to see the poll itself because that 61 percent to 30 percent among those who know Nelson sounds too good to be true.
At the same time, the idea the more people know Nelson the more they prefer her over Bice rings entirely true, whatever the numbers.
Returning to Munson, if you’re a regular reader, you know I’ve been critical of her unwillingness or inability to lower the boom on Mazzei, to attempt to disqualify him, rather than simply running her own positive campaign.
But I saw an ad of hers over the weekend primarily consisting of her hugging people, or that’s what I remember most, but what do you know, I was moved.
So there’s that, too.
The truth is, I like where the nation appears headed.
As for the backward state we love so much, perhaps we’re not as far behind as we think we are. Perhaps the dishonesty, cruelty and fear of one political party for the sole purpose of capturing misinformed votes can only hold us down for so long.
I keep wishing someone could poll the triple-Trumpers who are quietly done with him. Nobody has found a way, and the reason is human. Admitting you were wrong to a stranger on the phone is a bigger ask than most people can manage, so they let the call go to voicemail and the pollster logs a shrug. The numbers we do get, like Trump at 53 percent unfavorable in the 5th District, come only from the people willing to pick up. I think the ones who hang up are where the real story is.
That's why Cook moving the governor's race from solid to likely Republican gets my attention. Cook doesn't edit a rating over a yard sign. The Republican Governors Association doesn't spend $2 million in a state it supposedly owns unless somebody in a nice office has seen a number they hate. Add Bice ducking every town hall and every debate, and you have an incumbent who has run the math on name recognition and decided silence is her best friend. Candidates who feel safe don't hide.
Now for the theory I hear most: the Republican who can't stand Mazzei but would sooner eat gravel than vote for a Democrat. I believe that person exists. I also doubt Munson or Nelson wins him outright, and I don't think they need to. Plenty of Drummond voters went home from that runoff with a nominee they didn't pick, and Mazzei took the nomination with just over half the vote. A voter like that has three options in November. He can hold his nose and fall in line, he can cross over, or he can leave the governor's line blank and vote the rest of the ballot. Only the first helps Mazzei. Every blank is a vote he doesn't get, and every blank makes a race Cook already moved look tighter. I'd count the second option too, because the man in the truck with the sticker isn't going to announce it.
Picture a rural farmer with kids at home, a hospital cutting services, and the nearest specialist ninety minutes away. He won't tell a pollster what he's thinking, and he won't tell his neighbor at the co-op either. But he gets to be alone in a booth, and the booth never asks him to explain himself. I'm betting on those quiet votes, and on the embarrassment that comes with them. Embarrassed voters can be moved, and Cyndi Munson and Jena Nelson only have to make the exit easy to find. Show up early, and bring the neighbor who won't say it out loud.